The world economy’s space sector grew 12% on the year to $686 billion in 2025. Commercial activity accounted for 79% of the space economy and expanded 13% per year. Space, once a frontier of government exploration and national pride, has become a commercial marketplace with launch costs falling by more than 95% since 1960, private capital flowing at unprecedented levels, and countries negotiating trade deals with orbital infrastructure as a crucial component of economic territory. Goldman Sachs estimates the space economy will be $1.8 trillion by 2035, so the real question is not whether space is important to international trade. It’s how the rules will be made for it.
Economic magnitude of the orbital marketplace
Revenue: Commercial space industry revenues reached $544.3 billion in 2025, up 13% over 2024. Positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services, including ground stations and associated equipment, totaled $419.8 billion, but other markets are growing faster. In-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM) grew 23% in the past year.
Lunar activity grew 43%.
These are not forecasts or estimates; the results reflect commercial space industry contract execution, revenue booked, and services delivered.
And the downstream economic impact is significant. Space-based systems are claimed to underpin more than half of the most critical networks in OECD economies, and satellite-enabled services are thought to add around 18% to the UK GDP. Satellites account for more than 90% of the data absorbed by weather prediction models, and 70% of data from active Earth observation missions is now publicly available, allowing small and large companies to craft new offerings in transport, agriculture, financial services and emergency response. Space is embedded infrastructure, not another frontier.
Trade agreements and the new geopolitics of space commerce
The explosion of bilateral and multilateral agreements on orbiting activities is among the most visible indications that space commerce has joined scientific endeavors as a trade priority. The February 2025 U.S.-India TRUST Initiative provides a platform for civil and commercial space collaboration by NASA inviting ISRO to join its Moon Base program under the Artemis Accords. A U.S. Trade Mission to India on commercial space in February 2026 brought 23 top executives from 14 leading American space companies to Bengaluru, evidence that market access, not scientific cooperation, is the ordering principle.
The India-EU Free Trade Agreement signed in January 2026 is not, to be sure, technically called a “space agreement,” but it lays out the directions for the India-EU build-up of an important orbital corridor, consisting of industry, digital systems, and investment. The new trade paradigm “pivots to reciprocal market access,” reports the Indian Express, a phrase that a decade ago could not have occurred in space diplomacy.
These accords could be signs of a bigger change. The cooperative structure of international arrangements created in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty could be evolving into a “cold war” between rival governance regimes, national laws and body politics. This shifts legal risk to businesses interested in orbital slots, spectrum, satellite data and future space resource rights. Struggling capital-heavy ventures in the financing, underwriting and on-orbit operations areas may be more exposed, and governments seem increasingly keen to control satellite data on security grounds.
Export controls and the compliance burden
Space is at the core of the increasingly strict international sanctions and export control systems. Export controls for dual-use space-related and other related emerging technologies are growing to include areas like high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors, which are today often fully integrated in existing commercial supply chains. US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) still consider a large number of space technologies weapons, hindering US companies from going for international business.
The industry is calling for reform. The Bureau of Industry and Security is contemplating the introduction of a new license exception relating to specific Commercial Space Activities, and a number of policymakers have stated that the commercial space industry is overclassified as ITAR articles where they do not confer meaningful military advantage. However, the compliance risk remains high for debt and equity financiers, investors, insurers and companies that operate across borders. A regular photograph of a space launch, for instance, even at a secure installation, could be regarded as an “export” under ITAR, as was the case in a recent enforcement action.
The next frontier: lunar commerce and in-space manufacturing
Perhaps the most significant would be the moon itself. Deloitte predicts that a moon economy could reach $566bn in value by 2050 in a high-growth scenario, with transportation, energy, communications, life support and construction comprising $282bn of that total and new resources and materials, including rocket fuel produced from moon water ice and helium-3, $114.5bn.
NASA wants to ramp up its commercial lunar payload services effort, with the goal of up to 30 robotic landings by 2027. The missions are not limited to science; they are investments in infrastructure that are meant to pave the way for commercial operations. “There’s been a global investment in the development of lunar missions and activities around the Moon and that’s going to change the narrative around the cislunar economy,” said Bryce Tech’s Carissa Christensen.
On-orbit production
Another new space frontier is in-space manufacturing. With launch costs decreasing from $87,023 per kilogram in 1960 to an estimated $3,868 in 2025, it is now financially viable to manufacture fibreoptic cable, 3-D-bioprinted organs, and advanced materials on orbit in microgravity for return to Earth. These aren’t just space-based industries moving off-planet, but entirely new industries only possible in space.
Conclusion
Space commerce has grown from a government-funded cottage industry to a $686 billion enterprise that is nearly as large as the global semiconductor market. The trade deals, export controls, and commercial investments of the last couple years point to a time when governmental and commercial actors agree that orbital infrastructure and industries are a vital economic domain. The implementation will be challenging: a crumbling legal system, debates over the extraction of space resources, orbital debris, and the advent of a new class of commercial weapons.
But the path forward is clear.
As Goldman Sachs has put it, space is becoming “a new pillar of the industrial economy.” The new global frontier is not a catchphrase. It is a market, and the rules are being written.
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Sweety Tuli is a legal content writer at Legallands.com, specializing in corporate advisory, legal research, and strategic business compliance. Her work focuses on simplifying complex legal concepts for entrepreneurs, investors, and professionals navigating multi-jurisdictional frameworks, particularly across India and the UAE.
With a keen understanding of corporate law, regulatory affairs, and policy reforms, Sweety contributes insightful analyses on topics such as company formation, CEPA-driven trade policies, taxation frameworks, intellectual property, and digital compliance.
She is passionate about bridging the gap between legal interpretation and business practicality—helping organizations align their operations with legal governance, ethical standards, and global best practices.
Through her articles at LEGALLANDS LLP, Sweety aims to make legal knowledge more accessible, strategic, and actionable for businesses operating in a rapidly evolving regulatory environment.
